After so much anticipation, we’re almost ready to close out another Cyber 5 weekend. Luckily, the biggest day for online sales is still ahead of us. This week, we break down the holiday e-commerce forecast for the week of November 28th and Cyber Monday 2021.
Cyber Monday, coined in 2005, has quickly come to rival Black Friday in terms of deals, sales, and excitement. However, just as we discussed last week in regards to Black Friday, Cyber Monday may not always be about the best deal. Releasing a new product, reducing the free shipping minimum (or offering blanketed free shipping), and sharing exclusive giveaways can also help your brand to gain new customers and engage loyal customers.
NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast
We’re excited to see the big build-up for Cyber 5. It is significantly better than previously expected, as just a month back businesses were struggling with product shortages. Now, we see customers buying spending more and buying more frequently and quickly.
So far this month, online sales are trending at +11% YoY. The average order value is up 3% compared to November 2020. The conversion rate has increased 13% YoY compared to November 2020. A high CVR shows a greater propensity to buy. We believe that this growth in sales and a high CVR will continue throughout the rest of this month and the holiday season.
“In our previous holiday forecast of 6-7% YoY growth, we had underestimated the power of human desire to be free and to be together. We all yearned to be free and to be together with our family and friends — in person. The shopping and gifting surge that we are experiencing now in the US — much like the travel surge seen over the summer — is an expression of our desire to be free,” summarizes Udayan Bose, NetElixir’s Founder and CEO.
November 28 to December 4, 2021 Online Sales Summary
Key: Green is moderate YoY growth (<5%); Orange is high YoY growth (5-12%); Red is very high YoY growth (>12%)
NetElixir predicts continued strong e-commerce growth for this week. Cyber Sunday starts off with high growth and Cyber Monday will see very high growth — this is on top of a record-setting 2020 Cyber 5 weekend. Be sure you have adequate customer service support to address any issues shoppers may be facing. As ‘Newly-Online Nervous Nelly’ is expected to be one of several customer personas making an appearance this holiday season, you want to ensure all her online shopping questions are quickly answered to help her easily complete her holiday shopping. Additionally, ensure your paid media team is aligned with your logistics team to monitor any inventory updates
Giving Tuesday, a day of charity and generosity following Cyber 5 weekend, will continue to drive online momentum. NetElixir forecasts e-commerce growth of 5-12% higher than last year on Tuesday. As Giving Tuesday gains momentum and drives online activities through charitable promotions, we may eventually see Cyber 5 evolve into Cyber 6. It’s too early to tell how Giving Tuesday will impact the overall Cyber 5 weekend this year, but with more brands emphasizing their values and giving back to the community, it may become an important element of the holiday season.
After the Cyber 5 boom, e-commerce sales will calm down slightly for the remainder of the week. We still expect to see growth compared to last year, but at a more subdued rate. Use this time to continue to get creative with category-level and product-specific promotions. Customers will still be searching for deals and gift ideas. With concerns over shipping delays and inventory shortages, next week may very well be one of the most strategically-important weeks of the season. Success for the week of December 5th starts with a good foundation this week.
The Role of Gift Giving
Hanukkah starts this week. While we don’t anticipate Hanukkah to drive a significant portion of e-commerce sales, it is an important holiday to include in your marketing campaigns — and the messaging is crucial. Some families exchange gifts through these eight days and nights, but the holiday is more about spending quality time with loved ones.
Online sales continue to soar as the holiday shopping frenzy intensifies. In some categories like apparel and consumer electronics, there are signs that “panic buying” has already set in. This is primarily due to the inventory stock-out challenges caused by supply chain disruptions. FOMO on that exclusive gift and not getting exactly what they want is a powerful purchase driver amongst holiday shoppers.
“There are clear indications already that retailers are not going to be discounting as much as they normally do during this holiday season. Given the explosive increase in consumer demand, if you have the items in stock and if your brand is visible and relevant to your target market, consumers will buy,” Bose continues.
Further Insights
Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior.
To learn how your brand’s Cyber 5 results compared to your competitors and industry trends, register for our annual Cyber 5 Webinar: Results. Trends. Insights. We’ll break down the search-shop-buy behavior of your online customers throughout the crucial shopping days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. During this live webinar, our founder and CEO, Udayan Bose, will share insights into:
- State-wise e-commerce sales growth
- Most popular time of day when customers shopped
- Revenue share of new product segments
This webinar is part of our annual holiday offerings — which also includes our holiday e-commerce calendar — and 2021 marks our 13th annual holiday forecast.
